FOR THE MEDICAL PRACTITIONER
Ophthalmology
doi: 10.25005/2074-0581-2026-28-3-824-833
A METHOD FOR PREDICTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RETINOPATHY OF PREMATURITY

M.N. PONOMAREVA1, D.B. EGOROV2, V.N. ALYOKINA3, S.S. YUDINA4, D.S. SPIRINA1,5

1Department of Ophthalmology, Tyumen State Medical University, Tyumen, Russian Federation
2Department of Medical Informatics and Biological Physics, Tyumen State Medical University, Tyumen, Russian Federation
3Regional Clinical Hospital No. 2, Tyumen, Russian Federation
4Surgut District Clinical Center for Maternal and Child Health, Surgut, Russian Federation
5Dr. Arbitaylo LLC, Tyumen, Russian Federation

Objective: To assess the probability of developing retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) using a risk scale based on the most significant risk factors.

Methods: Risk factors for the development of ROP were analyzed using a mathematical Ridge regression model. Ten of the most informative criteria were selected from the maternal medical history and another ten from the infant’s medical history. Based on the cumulative score for these criteria, a threecategory risk scale was developed: low (0-0.57), moderate (0.58-0.80), and high (>0.81) risk.

Results: The analysis of clinical cases demonstrated the ROP risk scale's effectiveness in clinical practice, with 95% accuracy. Three examples are presented in the article: infant A, with a low risk of developing ROP (total score =0.205115); infant B, with a moderate risk of developing ROP (total score =0.6594412); and infant C, with a high risk of developing ROP (total score =0.9199124). According to the medical records, infant A had no retinal pathology at birth or at age 1 year. Infant B was diagnosed with preretinopathy at birth. Examination at 2 months of age showed completion of retinal vascular development. Infant C was diagnosed with active stage I ROP in both eyes (OU), zone II. The condition progressed, necessitating laser photocoagulation.

Conclusion: The developed risk scale enables neonatologists and ophthalmologists to estimate the risk of ROP development during the first weeks of an infant’s life and to implement timely preventive measures.

Keywords: Retinopathy of prematurity, risk factors, laser photocoagulation, prediction, neonatology, ophthalmology.

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Authors' information:

Ponomareva Mariya Nikolaevna,
Doctor of Medical Sciences, Associate Professor, Head of the Department of Ophthalmology, Tyumen State Medical University
Researcher ID: GSE-1570-2022
ORCID ID: 0000-0001-6522-3342
SPIN: 6631-8206
Author ID: 792818
E-mail: mariyponomareva@yandex.ru

Egorov Dmitriy Borisovich,
Candidate of Medical Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Medical Informatics and Biological Physics, Tyumen State Medical University
ORCID ID: 0000-0002-7699-5759
SPIN: 9753-1903
Author ID: 745554
E-mail: dmdel@mail.ru

Alyokina Viktoriya Nikolaevna,
Head of the Pediatric Ophthalmology Department, Regional Clinical Hospital No. 2
ORCID ID: 0009 0007 9391 909 X
SPIN: 4327-1960
Author ID: 1175126
E-mail: alekina_vn@okb2-tmn.ru

Yudina Snezhana Sergeevna,
Ophthalmologist at Surgut District Clinical Center for Maternal and Child Health
ORCID ID: 0000-0003-2842-7762
SPIN: 8160-1347
Author ID: 1172292
E-mail: snezhana_yudina@mail.ru

Spirina Darya Sergeevna,
Pediatrician at the Doctor Arbitaylo LLC; Clinical Resident at the Department of Ophthalmology, Tyumen State Medical University
ORCID ID: 0009-0000-5128-868X
SPIN: 5693-1544
Author ID: 1172292
E-mail: daria-spiri2013@yandex.ru

Information about support in the form of grants, equipment, medications

The study was supported by a grant for the project entitled “Development of a Method for Optimizing the Diagnosis of Risk Factors in Preterm Infants as a Tool for Reducing Blindness and Visual Impairment and Improving Quality of Life” within the framework of the “UMNIK-2022” program. The authors did not receive financial support from manufacturers of medicines and medical equipment

Conflicts of interest: No conflict

Address for correspondence:

Ponomareva Mariya Nikolaevna
Doctor of Medical Sciences, Associate Professor, Head of the Department of Ophthalmology, Tyumen State Medical University

625023, Russian Federation, Tyumen, Odesskaya str., 54

Tel.: +7 (909) 1898973

E-mail: mariyponomareva@yandex.ru


This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

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